This article analyzes over 322,000 decisions affecting Air Force officers under consideration for early promotion to major, lieutenant colonel, and colonel. Several theories predict that promotion rates of men exceed promotion rates of women, while promotion rates of Caucasians exceed promotion rates of minorities. Consistent with theory, data indicate that early promotion rates of Caucasian officers are higher than those of minority officers. However, early promotion rates of men are generally worse than those of women. Weighted least squares analyses further reveals that time rarely has a significant negative or positive impact on early promotions. Women and minorities officers also turn over at high rates and are grossly underrepresented among Air Force officers promoted early to the middle-grade ranks.
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